Entrepreneurs and Enigmas

Bletchley Park – rightly – has a semi-mythical status amongst UK geeks as the birthplace of modern hacking. As the wartime employer of Alan Turing and his peers, many of the underpinnings of the information age – from super-computers to advanced cryptography – were developed here. Certainly in my imagination it was a small, close-knit, community of the finest minds in the UK – a place where sustained concentration and flashes of genius changed the course of the war.

Except of course, it wasn’t. It was a huge organisation – employing over 9,000 people by 1945, something you would never know from the official history. I was genuinely taken aback to hear this on an edition of BBC Radio 4’s “Thinking Allowed” (from about 15mins) which was discussing a recent book on Bletchley Park by Professor Christopher Grey of Warwick University. The book, “Decoding Organisation“*, takes an organisational analysis approach the to work of the station, and draws some surprising conclusions.

The fundamental shock being that – in any modern sense of the term – it was in no way organised. There were no clear lines of reporting, often different parts of the organisation had no idea of the existence of other parts, much less what they were doing and why. A very small initial elite group, drawn primarily from interpersonal contacts, barely held together what Grey describes an “anarchistic” system. It had no (or nearly no) job delineation, no strategic or policy function, and (surprising for a quasi-military wartime function) very little hierarchy. The small, close-knit social circle at the top was nominally “in charge” of the establishment – but they didn’t have a remit or regular committee meetings, or -really- any idea what was going on.

And this isn’t a story of “despite this, Alan Turing won the war and invented modern computers”. As Grey makes clear in the interview, it was because of this chaos that such things were possible.

This is by no means a single example. To me the Bletchley management parallels the classic British University structure of a similar vintage. In both cases you see a commitment to a single overarching cultural goal – the “defence of Civilisation”, with surprisingly little codification of such a goal.  And universities – loosely organised, loosely managed – have produced many of the advances that have advanced and defended Civilisation: from DNA at Cambridge to the Web at CERN (a multi-university collaboration in Switzerland).

When we hear stories of these efforts, we hear about individual genius, we hear about sudden flashes of brilliance, things falling in to place. We hear – in essence – a revisionist history informed by the myth of the entrepreneur. We seldom here anything of the conditions that make such breakthroughs possible, and we never hear anyone arguing for the establishment of quasi-anarchistic organisations that provide support and resources without obsessing over outputs and accountability.

Which is a very dangerous state of affairs when coupled with our current cultural enthralment with the quantification and demonstration of value. There are few infographics with question marks. Little performance data with error bars. And the irony comes with the realisation of the sheer expense of doing all of this measurement – both in terms of human and financial cost – is the most effective way of ensuring that no innovation ever happens.

(* I’ve not managed to get my hands on a copy of this book, either in a library or through spending £55 plus p&p. If anyone would like to buy me a copy, I’d be happy to review it here)

#mooctober – end the madness

Every blog post I read, every tweeted link I see, every breathless gushing article about “tsunamis” and “disruption” I flick past is a nail in the coffin of rational and realistic debate about the way connected technology can support learning. Every sturm und drang keynote – every hyped-up sharp-suited Silicon Valley sales pitch takes us further and further away from the idea of people talking to each other, making stuff, and learning as they go.

And now, this October, it is time to take a stand. I am pledging to refrain from discussing, speculating and analysing the trend for the remainder of this month. On my blog, on twitter, in conversation. It is no longer anything to do with those who are interested in education and technology. It is a monster, and I refuse to be a part of the forces that are feeding it.

If you agree – join me. Celebrate #mooctober by writing about everything else in the education, technology, funding and policy world that catches your  eye. But ignoring this one, glaringly overdone and over-hyped topic.

#MOOCtober 2012. End the madness.

(ps: #ds106isNotaMOOC – likewise #phonar )

 

 

West Coast Rail – don’t blame the civil servants

The Followers of the Apocalypse have clearly been remiss in not bidding for UK Rail Franchises. With the announcement of a £40m pot to compensate for bidding costs from the Department of Transport (DfT), I could be writing this post from somewhere entirely sunnier today.

It’s interesting that compensation (and so much compensation) is being offered. The “Invitation to Tender”  (large pdf document) (ITT) explicitly says that:

“The information contained in this document does not purport to contain all of the information that a prospective franchisee or shareholder may require. Neither the Secretary of State, nor any of his employees, agents or advisers (“representatives”), makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) (and no such representatives have any authority to make such representations and warranties) as to the accuracy, reasonableness or completeness of the information contained in this document.

All such persons or entities expressly disclaim any and all liability (other than in respect of fraudulent misrepresentation) based on or relating to any such information or representations or warranties (express or implied) contained in, or errors or omissions from, this document or based on or relating to the recipient’s use of this document ,or the use by any of its subsidiaries or the respective representatives of any of them in the course of its or their evaluation of any franchise or the shares of any franchisee or prospective franchisee or any other decision. 

[…]
The Department reserves the right at any time to issue further supplementary instructions and updates and amendments to the instructions and information contained in this document as it thinks fit.

[…]

The Department will not be responsible for the costs or expenses of any Bidder in relation to any matter referred to in this document howsoever incurred, including the evaluation of the InterCity West Coast franchise opportunity, the award, or any bid for the award of the InterCity West Coast franchise, or negotiation of the Franchise Agreement.”

which makes a pretty strong case for arguing that there is no way anyone should be getting any compensation for bidding under any circumstances. You’ll note it allows for changes to the instructions (and thus the process) at any time.

Now this is boiler-plate stuff. It, or something similar, will be in every invitation to tender that comes from the DfT (and there are similar clauses in most other public sector ITTs). It is there for a reason – to ensure that taxpayers money is not put at risk by any errors in the process that may creep in. It is nearly impossible to offer compensation for bidders costs – I know this, because I did it once (in 2003/4) at HEFCE and had to basically get permission from the Chancellor of the Exchequer. And this was for sums of up to £1,000 (I don’t recall that anyone claimed).

Rail Franchises are a stupid, stupid, stupid idea and they always have been. That said, the  DfT have been running these competitions for nigh-on 20 years, so you’d suspect that processes would be pretty solid by now. And running a bidding exercise is not an unheard-of activity in the civil service – I’ve run more than I care to remember.

What I think this tells us is that there is a political motivation to offer compensation. There is nothing in the terms of the bidding competition to say that compensation should (or indeed could) be offered.

Because of this long-existing large scale civil service capacity to do this stuff, I’ve been having a look into what has changed this time round. If there has been an error (and I am not convinced entirely that there has been), it must be due to a recent change in the process.

And the process was changed, in 2011, to allow for “longer, less prescriptive franchises that will give the industry more freedom to innovate“. This suite of changes was complex, and criticised widely.  The Rail Professional article (as subscribers probably recall!) ends with a lovely summary of the central issue:

“It would be nice, some day, to have a calm, government-led thinkthrough of franchising policy, inspired by nothing more than a desire to devise the best balance of risks and rewards. The likelihood is that franchising policy will continue to be re-examined amid crises, and the results skewed by the need to tackle a single, perceived problem. The outcomes, like this one, will also be flawed but robust enough to see out a parliament before another unfortunate minister needs to rethink them.”

This – like previous rethinks of the rail system – was fire-fighting a single perceived issue – the need for rail companies to contribute more to infrastructure upkeep – with a single “magic bullet” – helping franchisees to make larger profits. However, it didn’t even last a parliament.

What appears to have happened is that the likelihood of the non-payment of amount of money the “successful bidder” (FirstGroup) offered for the opportunity to run the West Coast line was not properly insured against by DfT. FirstGroup had offered to pay £13.3bn over three years, and DfT asked for £180m to be deposited with them as a deposit which could be kept if payments were not met. You might think that £180m is a hell of a lot less than £13.3bn and you would be right. It is. Virgin’s argument was that this wasn’t enough – and DfT already has the right to demand an additional bond from a franchisee if it thinks it hasn’t got enough.

I suspect we’ll never know what actually happened – but it is unlikely to be a matter of a civil servant getting his sums wrong.