Round about this time last year I did “9 things to watch out for in 2015” – a seemingly popular post that dared to predict some things about this year that weren’t entirely obvious. I did this pretty well in 2014, so now’s the time to take a look at how I managed this time around…
… and I would have to say that my performance was credible rather than earth-shattering. On some points I’m spot on – on others, clearly dreaming.
Those who enjoy irony will note that I wrote quite a lot about not-so-good prediction this year, so maybe you could use the points I made against me in the comments to this piece.
1. Education policy in politics
“I’m not going to win any points by predicting a UK general election next year, or an unusual result that is likely to mark a decisive shift away from the two party politics that have dominated the country since the second world war… What I am predicting is HE policy being a point of clear distinction between parties.”
Yup, we had an election and that was a thing that happened. And the collapse of two party politics seems to be Labour tearing itself inside out.
But the parties *did* differentiate themselves on HE, sort of – remember Labour’s £6K fees idea? No, me neither.
But maybe half-a-mark here, for being accidentally right on some points.
2. Academia against the institution
“Expect more strikes, more protests, more hard questions asked of institutions – and hopefully some answers.”
Yup. The ongoing round of industrial action against the OU is telling in the incorporation of informed strategic and financial critique. As yet, few answers, but a feeling of managers being held to account.
3. W(h)ither the MOOC
“I’ll come straight out and predict that at least one major platform will either close entirely or move away from offering free and accessible online courses in 2015.”
And I read this today on Coursera’s blog. Students paying for assessment from January 2016. That’s pretty much a pivot away from free and accessible online courses. I would never, if I’m frank, have expected that from Coursera (I’d kind of reckoned FutureLearn as the platform to go – but they still seem to be able to draw down money from the OU as required).
4. Teaching quality enhancement metrics
“learning gain will inform the key policy arguments about learning technology in 2015, and that we will see a welcome collaboration between SRHE and ALT in response.”
Oh God, and how. The Teaching Excellence Framework has defined the year in teaching quality enhancement – going from a dumb idea in the Conservative manifesto, to Jo Johnson (who wrote said manifesto) being made HE minister and actually trying to implement it, to George Osborne omnishambles-ly linking it to inflationary fee increases (at a time of deflation, LOL right?).
And then HEFCE (RIP, 4eva in r hearts) still came on like Learning Gain was a thing.
And then the green paper came out (eventually) in Novemeber, and it was as big a dogs breakfast as any of us imagined. Now every other article in the UK HE press is about teaching quality metrics and it remains as stupid and bad an idea as ever.
(ALT and SRHE haven’t stepped up to critique it, though Wonkhe – increasingly the home of practical HE policy research – did a sterling job)
5. Independent researchers
“Like it or not, much of the significant work on education technology and education policy will be done by people in their own time, and with little or no external funding. My prediction here is that independent researchers in a number of non-science fields will begin to organise themselves for mutual support and benefit.”
None less than the mighty James Wilsdon highlighted the need for investment in research into education policy in his seminal “metric tide” report. And although I know anecdotally of unfunded researchers in edtech, education policy and elsewhere grouping together to support each other (via conversations at various conferences), there’s been little visible movement.
It’s worth mentioning the steady and beautiful growth of OpenLibHums here – one of the best HE stories of 2015, and one supporting humanities scholarship in a tangible and sustainable way.
6. Authenticity
“Many of the most powerful arguments made about the condition of academia in 2015 will be not be framed in financial or statistical language. They will be pure, beautiful and true.”
I had to sit back and think about this a bit, but what were those whole range of post-OpenEd15 blog posts but an authentic response to a movement appearing to focus on financial and statistical language? As well as a wonderful re-awakening of a range of critical perspectives on openness, this was a visible example of the power of authenticity, culminating in the best thing David Wiley has written for a long time.
7. Students as ______ ?
“Sometime in 2015 we will see the development of a proper position that sees the consumer aspect of these interactions as one part of a very complex whole.”
Not really, no. Though the NUS flirting with a critical position on TEF was a pleasant surprise.
8. Uncapturing the lecture
“I predict a resurgence of the lecture – as outreach, as destination and as the cornerstone of the higher education experience.”
Again, not really. Lectures retained the place that they always have had in HE. I could still see them becoming an “event”, and public lectures still form a more sustainable and valuable form of outreach than MOOCs will ever be, but as a 2015 key trend… no.
9. Collaborative tools
“So in 2015 the technologies that will impress us most will be collaboration tools of various purposes.”
That’s pretty vague, for which I apologise. But a year that has seen the launch of Mike Caulfield’s federated wordpress and the Thompson Rivers University “SPLOTs” can be said to embody this trend of simple collaboration. And I’m increasingly enamoured of Sandstorm.io as a means of quickly deploying collaborative tools on demand.
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So – I make that six out of nine – 66% accuracy rate – so slightly better than a monkey with a wordpress would have done. Join me in a few days for some predictions about 2016, perhaps FOTA has come of age as means of predicting the future of UK HE policy and edtech, but I can be certain that love has come of age.
Take it away, Kenny Loggins!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmiDUSJ_Y7g
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